Helping your older parent to move into a senior living area isn’t an easy decision to make. Of course, there are some senior living communities that don’t live up to their missions. Nevertheless, the good news is there are many senior living communities that do live up to their promises. Here, your loved one will receive many advantages; more than they’d get, living independently in your home. Depression among seniors is frequently brought on by loneliness. One of the phenomenal advantages of a senior community is the fact that it provides the residents with a healthy social facet. A social life is important to a senior’s well-being. They’ve a chance to make friends and interact with one another through social activities coordinated by the staff members. This continuous socialization enhances the seniors’ quality.
If your loved one has becomes unsteady on their feet, visually impaired or physically delicate, it’s best for them to have assistance. A senior living area can function as a safe place for seniors. There are folks there to assist seniors with their everyday pursuits. Additionally, there are other security measures set up to help seniors.
Help with Housework
Seniors often begin to skip standard household chores, as they grow old. Nonetheless, in a senior living community, every one of these hassles are removed. Seniors no longer have to think about cooking, cleaning, going to the grocery store, because all of these things are taken care of by the employees.
Many seniors suffer from memory loss diseases, as they grow old. This can lead to complications, if they neglect to take their medication. Of course, skipping a few days of medication can lead to negative and harmful consequences for seniors. In a senior living community, there are medical professionals-including nurses and doctors-to manage the healthcare needs of your loved ones. The nurse will ensure that the seniors take their medicine on time. As individuals get older, the frequency of visits to the doctor’s office often increases. In a mature assisted community, there are in-house doctors for seniors who require medical attention.
Nutrition If they live alone, doing the activities of everyday living can be very challenging. Fortunately, senior living communities provide many services, so that seniors don’t have to fret about the activities of daily living. The facilities offer seniors three nutritious meals, plenty of social opportunities, and many activities for seniors to pursue. Eating together in tables with different seniors may also boost their social well-being. Restricted diets can also be provided in these centers, for seniors who have medical needs.
If you want an excellent life for the elderly loved one, it is possible to help them move to a number of the best senior living facilities.
At long last a post that has fewer than 5,000 words! Last week, I had been one Chairman of this 2nd annual Retirement Living World China summit in Shanghai. In seeing this was the next such conference and we’re, in effect, at the fourth year of this industry, I began to think it high time to get some qualitative, analytical demonstrations. Unfortunately, despite my encouragement and pleadings with the corporate sponsor/event supervisor to set demonstration criteria, I had been frustrated. But there were some really good presentations and a very welcome statement from Mark Spitalnik and Tom Hill which they’ve founded the China chapter of IAHSA. Congratulations! To those visionaries.
Maybe it’s still early and China is, after all, not the most transparent environment for information collection. Nevertheless, development of presentations which try to resolve industry issues shouldn’t be binary, meaning that a best efforts analysis or not…I mean, it’s possible to create researched deductions based on marketplace observations and give them up for debate without even access to reams of data. Insightful presentations can be completed in a thorough manner and while they might not carry the burden of an academic, full market scan using tons of publicly available, indisputable data; they are helpful if for nothing besides high quality deliberation.
On day two I had been told I offered such a demonstration and I firmly believe it is the first attempt at a supply/demand test of this China senior living marketplace. Here are my theory and exactly what I said:
Hypothesis: Not that the demographics of China are not unusual in their arrangement or amazing in their enormity, they are really; but I have discovered the attraction into the information and their use to be completely without critical assessment. For example, everyone speaks about the 170 million Chinese seniors over the age of 65. . .and this is really the figure which has been reported from the many Chinese governments and encouraged by the China Research Center on Ageing (CRCA). However, this figure is a gross amount and hasn’t been vetted for those characteristics which could preclude the use of a senior living center, which characteristics are namely income and other cultural inclinations. In fact, as of today, no one has genuinely attempted to qualitatively assign a dimension to what I call the China Senior Living cohort (CSL cohort). The question is: what’s the population cohort which may be reliably measured/thought of as comprising persons which have the requisite characteristics to think about a senior living facility?
Fact is, there are no indisputable figures that would lead one into a unquestionable calculation of the size of this CSL cohort. But I have done a little bit of work in on this figure, like a conjoint analysis of 550 elderly persons, estimates of the number of those older Chinese who make over RMB 250,000 annually and careful review of specific luxury retail earnings where inferences can be made about population size as well as other observations. Based on these analyses, I strongly believe the CSL cohort of Chinese seniors from which senior living facilities will draw their inhabitants is today roughly 10.2 million or roughly 6 percent of the entire population of Chinese 65 and older (170 million). This CSL cohort will enlarge 12% during the next 4 years to approximately 11.4 million by 2016 according to standard population growth estimates supplied by the CRCA.
Over the past three decades, I’ve traveled from Harbin to Sanya, from Shanghai to Chengdu in my search for and examination of senior living projects in China; my attention lies in their structure not just from a size, design and physical point of view but also in the creation of their service and aged-care surgeries. The result from this exploration was a record of projects replete with relevant information on their construction, operations, price and occupancy amongst other vital industry data. To my knowledge, this data yields the only available metrics on present supply of mature residing in China.
At present, based on my personal observations, I understand there to be roughly 25 (give or take 2) senior living jobs in China. I specify”senior living jobs” as 1) a western style residential project, 2) constructed in the previous 5 decades, 3) specifically constructed and designed for adults over the age of 60, 4) age appropriate amenities for recreation and living support and, 5) supplying any combination of these living accommodations: independent living, assisted living and aged-care or skilled nursing capabilities. As a concrete example, this record would include such well-known jobs as Yue Cheng in Beijing, Yanda International Healthy City in Hebei province and Qinggang Elderly Nursing Center in Chongqing.
It should be well noted I am not making any distinction between strata title projects, rental projects or some other distinctive operating characteristic such as a subscription application. This analysis is a wide, industry broad set of projects which adhere to the 5 standards set forth above. I readily admit that this is somewhat of a indiscriminate enquiry and as such may limit the extent to which I could make accurate projections, but we must start somewhere. Here are some additional data on the Current inventory and relevant supply decisions:
Loss of Coolant
Measuring future supply and demand is a completely different thing and this exercise actually relies entirely on my firm’s existence in the market area and our care in noting all projects currently in planning (i.e., architectural drawings complete and ownership of property ) or under structure. This is simply because there is no clearing house for such data currently in China; no one keeps track of those projects, collectively. So other than what we have accumulated here, one would have to go outside and spend 12 months counting projects, which is the next best alternative. Again, our data on these figures come straight from clients, discussions with prospective clients and visits to local planning commissions or government officials.
Our data, with respect to future distribution, is as follows:
The significantly more challenging aspect of this exercise is deciding what future demand will be. We have long discussed this at my firm, consulted together with CRCA buddies and it is widely agreed among us that no calculus exists today to gauge future senior living requirement. Therefore, after much deliberation, we decided to only ask a different question, namely: What level of demand would be necessary to reach two threshold scenarios: 1) an industry wide 75% occupancy (liminal profitability scenario) and, 2) an industry wide 40% occupancy (meltdown situation ) once all 168,750 new beds arrived online?
Taken alone and without any extra context, these are shocking growth figures and I think, superficially unachievable. However, you will find mitigants and these situations as they rigorously appear above are not likely to happen. Yet some industry fallout, and some is the operative word, is unavoidable.
Moderation of Chain Reaction
The China Syndrome, starring Jack Lemmon, Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas, was a gripping 1979 drama about the potential dangers of nuclear energy. The expression, China Syndrome, describes a catastrophic accident, the fictional result of the meltdown of a nuclear reactor beginning with the loss of coolant fluid at the reactor along with the partial or complete exposure of the gas component assemblies.The core components melt and melt through the containment vessel, the housing building and notionally through the crust and body of the Earth until hitting the other side of Earth, which at the USA is popularly thought to be China.
However, in fact, the physics of a China Syndrome is held to be unrealistic for a number of reasons, most notably, gravity. Yet, a large hole, countless kilometers deep and thoroughly contaminated for thousands of years with lethal radiation is troublesome enough. In similar manner, a China senior living Syndrome is my fanciful accounts of what I see as a possibly diminished marketplace based on unrestrained, wildly speculative development of senior centers. Such a situation would retard operational growth for quite some time.
Resumption of controlled fission
I believe it’s not possible that the industry will not encounter some over-capacity in the near term, in fact with current occupancy at 35% we’re already there. But even in the subsequent two years with intensified excess supply, given the character of an embryonic industry, it’ll be completely potential for astute, well prepared developers to”beat the market” and exceed industry averages in terms of occupancy; I have no doubt about this. But preparation and market insight is going to be the threshold imperatives for these out-performance. Going forward, reliance on the previous encounter, be it western or local, will be inadequate. And finally in this regard, Good News! As an outcome of however mild or severe the over-capacity might be, I project that by 2014 the China senior living arena is going to soon be populated with”value add” chances or a new era in desperate investing where the winners are masters of the property and functioning sides of the business.
Lastly, I would like to make a few remarks about what I perceive as the vast, over-estimation of the high-end senior living market in China. I define the high-end as jobs with a membership cost of RMB1.5 million or more, or in the event of a unit earnings project, a price per square meter of RMB30,000 or more. The mid-range is represented by a project using a membership price of RMB500,000 to RMB1,000,000 or, again in the case of a unit earnings endeavor, a cost per square meter of RMB10,000 to RMB20,000.
Today, despite all the industry chatter, there’s no thriving high-end senior living project in China. . .none, period. In fact, there are a couple examples of very unsuccessful high-end efforts. Furthermore, the successful (read: fairly effective ) jobs that exist today are solidly at the mid-range of this marketplace. The causes of this are just emerging, but I believe it’s to do with a number of phenomena:
Again, I might be wrong, but it seems like the Emperor has no clothes. . .there is little to no data to support high-end senior lifestyle facilities. Now my caveat: especially excluded from this conversation is really a high-end, need-based product or sub-acute, long term care facility. I see tremendous need here as every single skilled geriatric nursing facility in China has a long waiting list, particularly the elite hospitals that cater to large government or military officials.
With this article, I’m clearly revising my thoughts on the China senior living marketplace. It is not a negative revision whatsoever; I am just fine tuning my view to adapt near term choppy waters. In the long run, I remain very positive. I live, eat and sleep this business and see it growing on a daily basis but no longer do I have the blind faith from the high-end market I once held: I’m now agnostic and suggest a”hold” at best for this sub-sector. What’s more, the prospective over supply and likely dumb demand curve concerns me in the long run. I suggest going”long” on the mid range to lower-mid range market or switch out to the sub-acute, skilled nursing business; there’s reliable data there and no catastrophic meltdown in sight.